On February 14, 2020, the economic and trade agreement between the United States of America and the People`s Republic of China came into force: Phase 1. China has agreed to increase the purchase of certain U.S. goods and services to a total of $200 billion in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2017. This PIIE graph tracks China`s monthly purchases of U.S. products covered by the agreement, based on data from Chinese Customs (Chinese imports) and the U.S. Census Bureau (U.S. exports). These purchases are then compared to the annual targets of the legal agreement, which are established monthly on the basis of seasonal adjustments on two basic scenarios (see methodology below). As outlined in the legal agreement, a baseline scenario for 2017 allows the use of U.S. export statistics and other Chinese import statistics. The agreement aims to ease some U.S.
economic sanctions against China, while Beijing must strengthen the purchase of U.S. agricultural products and other products. For example, Mr. Trump cited beef, pork, poultry, seafood, rice and dairy products. This PIIE map, originally released on May 18, 2020, tracks China`s monthly purchases of U.S. goods under the U.S.-China Phase 1 Agreement. Despite a recent Report by the Trump administration, which suggests otherwise, U.S. agricultural exports to China have yet to meet Phase 1 commitments.
Although better than manufacturing, it was not until September that agricultural exports returned to their pre-trade levels. . . . In September, they were only 65% of their seasonally adjusted targets. Starting with our October 26, 2020 report, we have seasonally adjusted the monthly purchase commitment targets to reflect this month`s relative weight for these products in the 2017 trade data. Note that the monthly targets for the end of 2020 serve only to illustrate. There is nothing in the text of the agreement to indicate that China must achieve anything other than the end-of-year targets. House of Representatives spokeswoman Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in a statement that „in the face of the loss of thousands of jobs in the processing industry and the country farm, ravaged by the damage caused by President Trump, Americans have no choice but a striking television ceremony to try to conceal the total lack of concrete progress, transparency or accountability in this „phase 1″ agreement.“ The monetary agreement contains Commitments from China to abandon competitive currency devaluations and not to steer its exchange rate towards a trade advantage – a language that China has accepted for years as part of its commitments to the Group of 20 major economies. Data Sharing Notice: This update is based on data of 25 November 2020 published on 25 November 2020 for Chinese and US exports – provisional data on US exports to China, which are monitored under the agreement, are now published before the full release scheduled for 7 December 2020. The next update will be based on data from November 2020, which will be published on December 25, 2020 (Chinese imports) and December 23, 2020 (U.S.
exports). Provisional U.S. export data for October were zero for aircraft (harmonized customs plan 8800 and 8802); All revisions to the data will be included in a review that was published on December 7. Chinese customs reported that imports of Chinese aircraft (8802) were only $506 million in October. The dependence of the Phase 1 agreement on China`s massive purchase commitments could be its biggest mistake. These commitments often generate press releases on large sales, but the agreement did not do enough for what was really needed: lower tariffs and other trade barriers to allow producers to compete in the Chinese market.